SYDNEY, July 20, 2018 – Malcolm Turnbull’s National Energy Guarantee (NEG) would raise electricity prices, do nothing to combat climate change and cripple the growing renewables industry, modelling by Reputex reveals.The report, commissioned by Greenpeace Australia Pacific, analyses the impact of the NEG on Australia’s carbon emissions and on National Electricity Market (NEM) wholesale prices by 2030 under the government’s 26 percent emissions reduction target and a more ambitious 45 percent target.
“This research by Reputex exposes Malcolm Turnbull’s 26 percent target as grossly inadequate, failing both on power prices and on carbon emissions,” Greenpeace Australia Pacific Head of Research and Investigations, Nikola Casule, said.
“If we literally did nothing electricity sector emissions would more than meet the 26 per cent reduction target proposed by the government. The NEG would also drive power prices higher by at least a quarter by 2030, compared to a more ambitious 45 percent target.
“This report confirms that an energy system with more renewables will be not only cleaner, but cheaper than the government’s do-nothing National Energy Guarantee.
Reputex’s modelling shows that a 26 percent reduction target for electricity sector emissions (to 130 million tonnes of CO2-e per annum) will be met under current policy by 2024, five years ahead of the NEG and at lower cost.
The modelling also reveals that the NEG will have no impact in driving new renewables investment over current policy, with 42 percent of generation coming from renewable energy sources by 2030 under business as usual. Under a higher 45 percent target, renewables would reach 50 percent of electricity generation by 2030.
On power prices, a 45 percent target would see wholesale power prices fall by a quarter to around $60 per megawatt hour by 2030, as more cheap renewables enter the energy mix, in contrast to the NEG which would see prices remain stable at just over $80.
The states and territories are expected to receive an updated version of the NEG early next month, in preparation for the 10 August COAG Energy Council meeting at which a decision on the adoption or rejection of the NEG is expected. All states and territories in the National Electricity Market (NEM) have to agree to adopt the NEG before it can become law. If adopted and legislated, the NEG will cover all states in the NEM: Tasmania, NSW, the ACT, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
“The NEG is not a policy but a political document for Malcolm Turnbull to appease Tony Abbott and the coal-obsessed far right of the Coalition,” Casule said.
“PM Turnbull’s motives are clear but the silence of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk demands an explanation. Both leaders have far more ambitious renewable energy and emissions reduction targets than the federal government yet have not ruled out waving through a policy that will do nothing to lower emissions or power prices.
“The evidence is clear: more renewables make power cheaper and cleaner.
“If the Victorian and Queensland Premiers vote for the NEG, they will own the consequences of hobbling the renewables revolution as much as Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott already do. It will become Daniel Andrews’ and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s NEG – the higher power bills, environmental damage, and carbon pollution that will result will be theirs.”
To read the report:
www.greenpeace.org.au/research/neg-report
For interviews:
Greenpeace Australia Pacific Communications Campaigner, Martin Zavan
0424 295 422