‘QLDer and CEO Linda Selvey writes from the floods’
I’m writing this blog in Brisbane airport hoping to fly back to Sydney, to my great sadness, leaving behind my family and friends in my home state of Queensland. It just didn’t seem appropriate to stay here and contribute to the demand for services/food/water etc, when they become stretched after the flooding peaks. For us Queenslanders, the floods are the biggest disaster we have faced for decades. Thousands of houses are expected to be underwater by the time the flood peaks tomorrow, and officials busily prepare for the expected damage.
I have a very close friend who was visiting her parents in Toowoomba from Alaska, so I went up there on Sunday to spend some time with them. On Monday, the road to Brisbane was looking under threat by rain, but I decided to delay my departure until the early afternoon so that I could spend as much time with them as possible. Then the deluge began. Even though I grew up in the tropics, I’ve never seen so much rainfall in such a small amount of time. We were in the sheltered outdoor section of a restaurant not far from the worst of the devastation. Pretty soon we were sitting in ankle-deep water but still oblivious to what was going on outside. When we left the restaurant, the worst of the flash flood was over but there were still parked cars sitting in several feet of rushing water.
Then I decided that I really should drive to Brisbane, but of course it was too late. There were so many road closures that it took me 45 minutes to drive to the top of the Toowoomba range, a drive that would normally take less than 10 minutes. When I got there I was informed that the range was closed because of landslides, taking me another 45 minutes or so to return to my friend’s house. The time that it took to drive was of course the least of my worries. The devastation was everywhere and when I finally managed to get across town I had to drive along one of the most affected streets. It was a staggering sight – furniture from shops strewn everywhere in pools of dirty water, cars were piled up on the side of the road. The brave and valiant police and emergency workers did a wonderful job directing the traffic and trying to make order out of the chaos.
I tried to get back to Brisbane the following day, but by then Toowoomba was completely cut off by road to all other major towns including Brisbane. I was grateful that I didn’t try and leave Toowoomba before lunch, as I had considered, because it is quite possible I could have been one of the casualties of the devastating flash flood. I am one of the lucky ones. I managed to fly out of Toowoomba today and now I’ve joined the throngs of people who are trying to leave Brisbane before the worst of the flooding hits. While we join together to help those in need and think about disaster mitigation and prevention, it is impossible to think of the Queensland floods without thinking about climate change.
Climatologists predict that with increasing temperatures will come increasing severity and numbers of extreme events. The current record-breaking Queensland floods tragically meet the description of a severe extreme event. Couple that with the widespread flooding that hit Queensland last year, and the year before, and we start to see an unprecedented weather pattern occurring. The impact on the Australian economy is already predicted to be worse than the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the US economy and it is ironic to think that ‘the economy’ is often touted as a reason to not take action to protect our climate. Ironically, the coal industry in Queensland is one of the largest industries to be affected by the flooding, and yet it has been one of the most active in trying to dissuade governmental action on climate change – such as instituting an emissions trading scheme.
Hopefully the current floods will be an unfortunate wakeup call – we won’t have a healthy economy without a healthy environment. Protecting our climate has to be the biggest priority for our wellbeing and our economy. When I reflect on the decades that Greenpeace and many other environmental organisations and climatologists have been advocating for action on climate change, the Queensland floods are a reminder that we are beyond the 11th hour for action. Let us hope that decision makers read the current signals our planet is giving us so our carbon emissions are urgently cut. Like communities throughout Queensland who are banding together to support each other in a time of need, Australians and other citizens of the world need to band together now to support our planet.
My heart and well wishes go out to those affected by the devastating floods.
Please join me in doing what we can to support them and consider donating to the Premier’s relief fund RSPCA or finding other ways to help
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January 13th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
well done on this essay Linda .. isn’t it time that a journalist of stature eg Kerry O’Brien (though he is gone) raised this issue directly with the Qld premier? (ie the coal/flood link and the delusion that selling more coal will solve climate change, as it will then purchase enough adaptation, hence we can then buy everything from China or somewhere).
Yesterday I spoke with Michelle Grattan’s temporary substitute (Peter someone, possibly Peter Martin). I made the suggestion that a journalist ask the Qld premier if she saw any link between coal and the floods. At first Peter was incredulous, but I then pointed out that Prof David Karoly was to be on the 7.30 Report that night (ie Jan 12) not so much linking Qld coal with floods, but yes, linking climate change with the floods .. and we all know that coal is linked to clmate change. Peter’s initial dismissive reaction actually turned to a polite thank you for the suggestion, and it made me think how far there is to go when even a senior journalist does not think of something that is so obvious to people such as ourselves who have been campaigning for years about this. That is, it may be not that journalists support coal mining uncritically, nor that they self-censor (ie is it bad taste to tell someone who has just had a heart attack to cease smoking?) but simply that they don’t see the issue because their minds are focussed on other things. If so, then we have a long long way to go to better communicate our message to the media.
I was also struck by your empathy with the people. We are both (originally) medical practitioners, and I am sure most of our motivation for being concerned with the environment is in fact to protect people, though of course other species also have value. I do hope Peter gets to ponder on these issues. regards, Colin
January 14th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
[...] Originally posted on Greenpeace Australia [...]
January 15th, 2011 at 11:48 pm
This is a time of national tragedy and all our efforts should be aimed at assisting those in need.
However, you couldn’t help it, could you?
“… it is impossible to think of the Queensland floods without thinking about climate change.”
Well, since you brought it up …
“Climatologists predict that with increasing temperatures will come increasing severity and numbers of extreme events. The current record-breaking Queensland floods tragically meet the description of a severe extreme event. Couple that with the widespread flooding that hit Queensland last year, and the year before, and we start to see an unprecedented weather pattern occurring.”
Linda, as tragic as this is, it’s called weather. Can I bring to your attention the very recent comments by Associate Professor Stewart Franks of Newcastle University.
“Since 2003, I have published a number of papers in the top-ranked international peer-reviewed literature regarding the role of La Nina in dictating Eastern Australian floods. There has been no evidence of CO2 in affecting these entirely natural processes, irrespective of their devastating nature.”
Link to paper by Franks et al: Climate variability in the land of fire and flooding rain
http://abcnewswatch.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2011-01-01T00:00:00+11:00&updated-max=2012-01-01T00:00:00+11:00&max-results=7
Linda, if you check out this Bureau of Meteorology page you will see that this weather event is not unprecedented
http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/brochures/brisbane_lower/brisbane_lower.shtml#PreviousFlooding
Floods of devastating intensity have regularly occurred in 1974, 1955, 1931 and 1893.
Also, with regards to your claim that climatologists predict “…increasing severity and numbers of extreme events…”, a very recent peer reviewed paper: Goebbert, K.H. and Leslie, L.M. 2010. Interannual variability of Northwest Australian tropical cyclones. Journal of Climate23: 4538-4555, disagrees.
“…The two researchers report they could find \no significant linear trends in either mean annual TC frequencies or TC days,\ and they say there was also \no trend in the number of intense TCs for the NWAUS sub-basin.\ In fact, they state that \none of the 13 NWAUS TC metrics exhibited statistically significant linear trends.\ And they add that \known climate indices — such as Niño-3.4, Niño-4, SOI, NOI, PDO, NAO, and others — generally were found not to be significantly correlated to the variability of TC frequency or TC days in the NWAUS region.\
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V14/N2/C1.php
Linda, please, rather than spread misinformation, join with us all and offer practical help and assistance to everyone affected by the floods. I’m sure those who donate to Greenpeace don’t expect, during a time of national tragedy, to be insulted by sanctimonious (not to mention questionable) utterances by those who should know better than to link natural weather patterns to ideological agendas.
January 20th, 2011 at 6:00 am
Well then stop moaning about the environment and donate some money to the re-building effort from your organisations billions of dollars. BTW: Bob Brown’s whine that the coal industry should pay is utter hypocrisy. The Greens website has nothing on what the Australian Greens are actually doing to help re-build QLD either financially, physically, administratively, strategically or operationally. Yes, you guessed the Green groups will all whinge again, introduce whacky policies then simply walk away and take no responsibility whilst asking everyone to incessantly give to them.
January 20th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Colin, thanks so much for your comment and for sharing your experience talking with the journalist. You’re right that my motivation for protecting the environment is inextricably linked to protecting people. It’s great to hear you are on the same page.
Steve, thank you also for taking the time to comment.
While we’re not explicitly apportioning the flood to climate change, what the science tells us is that climate change will likely exacerbate the impacts of weather patterns such as La Nina.
Even the Queensland Government only a couple of months ago published its latest assessment detailing the potential impacts of climate change. (http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/whatthescienceistellingus.html?source=cmailer)
The Chief Scientist for Australia, Penny Sackett, stated on the weekend “In Australia, the effects of long-term climate change make it likely that south-eastern Australia and many parts of western Australia will experience more frequent and more severe droughts, whereas northern Australia may have more severe monsoonal rains, tropical storms and flooding due to storm surges.” (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/room-for-hope-as-floodwaters-subside-20110114-19r8n.html)
You refer to the Bureau of Meteorology’s record of previous similar weather events. David Jones, head of climate monitoring and prediction at the Australia Bureau of Meteorology in Melbourne, stated “The general view is that this is one of the strongest La Nina we have had in modern history where we have data going back to the early 1900s.” Jones said the current La Nina was different because of the warmest ocean temperatures on record around Australia and record humidity in eastern Australia over the past 12 months. (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70B1XF20110112)
Even if you say the science is inconclusive, it would be reckless not to examine all potential determinants of the Queensland floods, including climate change. I believe we owe this to those affected by the devastating floods and also to those who will face them again in the future.
Dr Linda Selvey, CEO Greenpeace Australia Pacific
January 21st, 2011 at 9:23 am
Linda, thanks for those links, it looks like we have dueling scientists standing in the dawn fog at 50 paces with their rain gauges raised.
However I find your reply somewhat curious:
First, “While we’re not explicitly apportioning the flood to climate change…”, yes, okay … but mentioning the flood, climate change and the coal industry in the space of 11 lines in your original post makes a very strong implied link. I suggest that Implicit links/explicit links are all the same in the alarmist AGW PR game, as is saying ‘climate change’ but meaning AGW. There is a difference you know.
I shouldn’t need to say that the climate has always changed and the globe has been clawing its way out of the Little Ice Age since the 1600s. CO2 was not a factor in those days in creating a warmer world. Given that the globe is warming naturally, I’m not surprised that we have some climate change effects going on. It is the cause which is the salient point and I see no evidence that CO2 is the main driver of that.
Indeed, here is an Australian peer reviewed paper from 2010. Dr Janice McDonald found that; “the study of the stalagmites shows an increasing drying trend since ~1600AD. …”This means the past decade of drought in south-eastern Australia is not unusual in the context of a longer-term drying trend,” she added.”
http://www.aesc2010.gsa.org.au/PDF%20Documents/Media/6%20July%20Tues_Rainfall.pdf
It’s a pity that Chief Scientist Penny Sackett , in the comment you refer to, didn’t mention the long term drying trend for SE Australia actually started 400 years ago! Perhaps she is unaware of the study.
Thanks for mentioning the Queensland Government report, I suggest you have a look at Chapter 4 of their climate report of 2008 which doesn’t mention floods (so much for its predictive value).
http://www.climatechange.qld.gov.au/pdf/climateqreport/climateqreport-chapter4.pdf
Regarding the Bureau of Meteorology, I refer you to a paper by AL Vizard, GA Anderson and DJ Buckley that analyzed it track record of BOM seasonal rainfall predictions between 1997 and 2005. The critical quotes are: “The results indicate that the forecasting system had low skill. Brier Skill Score and the receiver operating characteristic values were uniformly close to the no skill value.”, and “The value of the forecasts for decision-makers was estimated using value score curves, calculated for six forecast scenarios. All curves indicated that no economic benefit could have been reliably derived by users of the seasonal rainfall forecasts,”.
http://www.mackinnonproject.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=86&Itemid=1
I realize that this study only went up to 2005, but predictions of the BOM influence government policies that I expect still have impact today. I see no evidence that their predictive ability have improved since then.
I also refer you to a 2009 paper published by the CSIRO by Andrew L. Vizard , Garry A. Anderson looking at The resolution and potential value of Australian seasonal rainfall forecasts based on the five phases of the Southern Oscillation Index, which found that: “In all seasons and regions the SOI forecasting system had a variance ratio of less than 0.20, indicating that resolution and skill were never high.”, and “The mean value scores for actions that are only triggered by a large shift in the forecast from climatology were uniformly close to zero in all seasons and regions, indicating that little or no value can be derived in such cases.” , and “We conclude that the imperfect resolution of the SOI forecasting system has a substantial effect on potential value.”
http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/CP08277.htm
Finally, the David Jones’ hysteria, “…The general view is that this is one of the strongest La Nina we have had in modern history where we have data going back to the early 1900s.”, is countered by: “The solid record of La Nina strength only goes back about 50 years and this latest event appears to be one of the strongest ones over this time period,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20110114/sc_livescience/currentlaniacouldbestrongesteverrecorded
So much for the ‘general view’. This La Nina may be the biggest since 1950, which suggests that the giant Queensland floods of the 1890s may have been the result of one even bigger! Who can say, because our ‘solid’ records only go back so far.
Your comment, “Even if you say the science is inconclusive, it would be reckless not to examine all potential determinants of the Queensland floods, including climate change.” seems to be a conciliatory note in your response, a plea to the precautionary principle … however Linda, you know we have already moved beyond that. Politicians are currently debating how best to increase our cost of living with a carbon tax. They are not examining all “potential determinants” … they have already decided CO2 is the culprit.
In any case, it is not just me saying the science is inconclusive. If I present to you papers and scientists who say there are no trends in climate change attributable to CO2, and you present papers and scientists that do … then the science IS inconclusive, no maybe about it.
What you or I say about it is immaterial. You and I have both presented scientific material that disagree therefore there is no agreement, no consensus. That being the case it would, in my view, be reckless to proceed with a carbon tax.