Australia’s second climate change election
When Kevin Rudd won the 2007 election in a landslide, it was heralded as the world’s first climate change election. Three years later, having squandered their mandate, the ALP went to Saturday’s election having tried to bury the issue. With little clear difference between the offerings of the two major parties, and neither pushing their climate change credentials as a strong point of difference, it was little wonder that climate change didn’t feature strongly in the media coverage of the election campaign.
But with the results almost in, it is clear that climate change once again played a major role in the election, but in a very different way than 2007.
In 2007, the Greens got 7.8% of the primary vote, a disappointing increase of only 0.6% from the previous election. Public concern over climate change was channelled into a vote for Labor – which was promising strong action and a clear alternative to Coalition inaction. But in 2010, with both major parties failing on the issue, the Greens were the only party promising strong and credible action on climate and their vote jumped 3.6% to 11.4%. Of the 5.4% swing against Labor, nearly 70% of it went to the Greens.
The result is a hung Parliament for the first time since 1940 and the clear emergence of the Greens as a third political force in Australia.
It shows that climate change is an issue that can’t be ignored. It can’t be dismissed with a talk-fest, a grab bag of half baked ideas, or pork barrels. Concern over global warming has entered the bedrock of the Australian body politic and politicians ignore it at their peril.
The big question is how the ALP will respond to the climate crisis if they manage to form a minority Government (as appears to be the most likely option)? They were punished for backflipping on the issue and the strong Green vote (not to mention opinion poll after opinion poll) indicates that the public want action.
While the role that climate change played in the electoral success of the independents is open to conjecture, it is interesting to note that all but Bob Katter have been strong and vocal advocates for action on climate change. Tony Windsor has been a strident critic of the coal industry and in 2008 sponsored the Climate Protection Bill in the Parliament, calling for 30% cuts by 2020. Rob Oakeshott has made it clear that climate change is a priority issue for him, and Andrew Wilkie ran as a Greens candidate in NSW and is a strong supporter of climate action.
With independents pushing for action, and the shift to a new Senate in July next year, the ALP would do well to move quickly to make the difficult decisions early in the next term of Government.
They will almost certainly need to abandon the citizens assembly after the near total ridicule it received. It was the wrong idea, on the wrong issue at the wrong time and reflected a serious misreading of the public mood. Maybe the “New” Julia could announce the “New” climate policy, and jettison the hackneyed rubbish that she ran with during the election campaign?
We are, after all, rapidly running out of time to stop runaway global warming that, according to the latest summary by the Australian Academy of Science, has the potential to increase average global temperatures by up to 7 degrees within our children’s lifetime. Maybe that’s why so many people steadfastly refuse to allow policians to ignore it?
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August 27th, 2010 at 9:12 am
An interesting take on a lack-lustre election. In reality, the Greens garnered a larger percentage of the vote because there is a lack of trust of the two major parties, and the electorate nationally sees this arrangement as a means of keeping check on the next government. If climate change was the big issue you claim it to be in the mind of the lectors, how come the Greens didn’t end up winning government in their own right with a significant majority?
August 27th, 2010 at 12:53 pm
The world is starting to feel the harsh effects of global warming. This is no fantasy. This is happening even as we speak. The Earth’s climate is changing, dangerously because of how much greenhouse gases we have produced in the atmosphere. Deforestation also adds to that issue. We must have a new climate deal by 2011. We need to hear from not just the politics, but the public who are well-aware on how big the problem of global warming really is. If our government ignores and therefor not act on this issue. Global warming will threaten our health, sercurity, economy, wildlife, biodiversity that makes up the ecosystems, which will threaten and have a massive impact on the environment. Take for example what happen in Europe, such as Greece: More bushfires! We have been warned about things like this yet to come. Many people may say that global warming is a scam, and that bushfires, droughts etc, have happened in the past a long time ago. Well his the TRUTH: Global warming is a natural cycle and happened as far back as the time of the dinosaurs. But back then, it didn’t have that much of a big impact back then. But as people came here, things started to change. As human society developes, that’s when I have to tell you: that we made it far much worse with our technologies. However, I have heard countless reports that global warming started to get a bit worse by human activity about 200 years ago. The Earth’s climate, has warmed up by 0.88 degrees so far. It will get hotter by another 2-3 degrees in 50 years time, maybe less! That may not be so much, most will say, but it will theoretically have a big impact on ecosytems and some wildlife. Australia, along with North America, are one of the most WORST polluters in human history. Australia’s wildlife will be in big trouble. 1,500 species of plants and animals will face extinction if our government fails to meet the issues of global warming! This is just NOT on!!!! I am SO conserned with global warming and extinction, that if needed to, I will try to take the matters into my own hands! Global warming IS real and sadly, it already has cost lives. Example, in Europe(can’t remember what year it was though) 30,000 people died of a massive heat wave, and 80 people lost their lives in the bushfires of Greece which happen not so long ago!!
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:03 pm
Hey Francis – I think if you read the original post you’ll see that it’s actually about an Australian election…nice rant, though, even if it is bordering on the slightly psychotic!
September 6th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
The reality is that climate change is, rightly or wrongly, no longer at all significant in the minds of Australian voters. The swing to the Greens is a direct result of the public’s dislike of both Liberal and Labor, and especially of their leaders. One only has to look at the large vote for the Sex Party, as well as the Hunters and Fishers, to see that the vote to the Greens was based on pragmatism, not on idealism.
September 10th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
HmmmNow, I agree the swing to the Greens is not all that impressive given the free pass the media has given them, particularly the ABC. Now that they have formed an alliance with Labor maybe their outrageous policies will be examined more closely.
The fact that the Nationals won a few seats in the lower house as well as increasing their senate team seemed to have gone unnoticed … their improved position is much more impressive than the Greens, given that after 2007 the party’s doom was being heralded by the commentariate.
I live in Lyne so you can imagine my disapointment at Oakshot signing up with labor … only 13% of the primary vote was for labor, 34% for the Nationals. There is genuine anger here from people who voted for him who did not expect a labor government to be the result. With this one act he has turned his seat marginal.
In Lyne only 4.2% of the primary vote went Green … so I’m sure not many who voted for Oakshott expected them to be in bed with labor and Oakshott in some strange menage.
Oakshot supports a price on carbon, so when a carbon tax is brought in (as I’m sure it will after July next year when the Green senate majority comes into its own and forces Gillard’s hand) then I’m certain the Nationals will win this traditionally National seat back.
As to why people vote Green, I can’t imagine … most that I’ve talked to up here didn’t even look at their policies on their website … which had they done so … and thought about the impact on the economy (and their standard of living) … I’m sure they would have thought twice.
As to the ETS, as I’ve said often, Australia’s fossil fueled electricity industry emits only 1% of the globe’s total CO2 emissions .. cutting it by 20%, 30% or 40% will have no effect on climate given that China will double their emissions (they already emit more than Australia’s share every month) by 2035 and India and the USA and Brazil and Russia will continue growing their economies … for people to believe that it makes sense for us to beggar ourselves for a mere 0.002 of the total stretches my credulity.